CONSULTANT-DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC

UNDP’s work on HIV, health and development leverages UNDP’s strength and core mandate in human development, governance and capacity development to complement efforts of specialist health-focused UN agencies. UNDP’s support focuses on three strategic areas: UNDP helps countries mainstream attention to HIV and health into action on gender, poverty and broader effort to achieve and sustain the millennium development goals. In this area, UNDP works with Governments to understand the social and economic factors that play a crucial role in driving health and disease, and to respond to such dynamics with appropriate policies and programs outside the health sector. UNDP works with Governments to address the interactions between governance, human rights and health responses. This is done through specialized programs such as promoting attention to the role of the law and legal environments in facilitating stronger HIV responses. UNDP also works to empower and include marginalized populations who are disproportionally affected by HIV. UNDP supports Governments in effective implementation of complex, multi-lateral and multi-sectoral projects, while simultaneously investing in capacity development so that national and local partners assume these responsibilities over time. In Malawi, UNDP, in partnership with other UN agencies, supported the Government of Malawi to develop a coordination mechanism and a strategic framework for the national response to HIV/AIDS. This support focused on the structural arrangements for the management of the response. However, the relationship between development and HIV has not been adequately represented either in development sector or in the national response to the epidemic. Essentially, the non-medical interventions neither take development into account nor address the structural determinants and consequences of the epidemic. A review of development partner support for the national response noted that there is a need to sustain the national response in the long-term. Although several sectors, including the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Development Planning and Cooperation and the Ministry of Agriculture ad Food Security have acknowledged that the long-term sustainability is problematic, this has not led to rigorous and systematic projections of a) the impact on economic development of the foreseeable vastly increased fiscal costs of maintaining the security of treatment for all those who will need it to stay alive; b) the impact on economic development of not continuing to sustain the national response; and c) the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS and its implications. Modeling these issues would permit the Government of Malawi to project the consequences of a range of scenarios and to use these as a basis for constructing policies and programs that could provide a foundation for changing course earlier rather than later. The projections would also provide an opportunity for the Government of Malawi to take initiative in, and control over, resource mobilization as well as institutional and policy evolution for the HIV/AIDS response should that become necessary. UNDP and Government of Malawi are therefore looking for an international firm or a consortium (a group of consultants) to develop demographic and economic/econometric models for long-term sustainability of the national HIV response in Malawi.

Duties and Responsibilities

The exercise will be conducted in two phases: Phase I: Phase I will involve data collection and analysis to identify issues that impede long-term planning for HIV and AIDS response. Phase II Phase II will involve the development of a demographic model and macro-economic simulation model using the issues through the demographic model and identified in Phase I under three scenarios: AIDS with Intervention’, ‘with AIDS’, and ‘no AIDS’; pn Up-dated Aggregate Growth Model under three scenarios (‘No-AIDS, ‘AIDS-with-ART’ and ‘AIDS-without-ART’). Using these models and results from analyses, the consortium will conduct validation workshops with key stakeholders and come up with policy options for Government of Malawi for a period of 50 years (2012 – 2062).

Competencies

Extensive knowledge and at least 10 years experience in applying quantitative and qualitative research methods (research skills and statistical analysis practical experience). Strong record in designing, leading and conducting economic and demographic research as well as modeling. Quantitative and qualitative data analysis and presentation. Knowledge of economic, demographic, HIV and AIDS issues for developing countries and specifically those affecting the Africa Region. Extensive knowledge of and demonstrable research and work experience in the region or in Malawi.

Required Skills and Experience

A minimum of Masters degree in Economics,Econometrics, Demography and Statistics

CONSULTANT-DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC