Consultant to Conduct an Ex-Ante Evaluation of Potential Impacts of a European Union-Funded Project

Terms of Reference for a Consultant to Conduct an Ex-Ante Evaluation of Potential Impacts of the European Union-Funded Project on Adaptation and Dissemination of the 'Push-pull' technology (ADOPT): a conservation agriculture approach for smallholder cereal-livestock production in drier areas to withstand climate change

Grant Contract No. DCI-FOOD 2010/230-224
I. Background

icipe seeks to recruit an experienced Consultant on a six month consultancy, as soon as possible, to conduct an ex-ante evaluation and gender analysis of potential impacts of a European Union-funded project on "Adaptation and Dissemination of the 'Push-pull' technology (ADOPT): a conservation agriculture approach for smallholder cereal-livestock production in drier areas to withstand climate change”.

The purpose of the project is to enhance food security and increase prosperity for poor smallholder farmers in Africa who are most vulnerable to climate change in line with the European Union thematic priority on food security. This will be achieved by adapting and enabling the expansion to drier areas of the successful push-pull technology (http://www.push-pull.net ), as a key component of integrated pest, weed and soil management, constraints that become more severe as a result of climate change. Initial target areas will be in drier parts of Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania that are on the limit of the current push-pull system because they are more arid (< 500mm rainfall p.a.) than the locations where push-pull is currently used. ADOPT will focus on crops grown in these dry areas such as sorghum and millet, and trap and intercrop plants that are adapted to dry and hot conditions. Key stakeholders will be the smallholder farmers themselves in these areas, who are already very interested in adopting the push-pull technology and the benefits it delivers but cannot because it is not yet adapted to dry conditions.

The push-pull technology is a novel cropping system developed by icipe and partners for integrated soil, pest and weed management in cereal-based farming systems. It involves attracting insect pests (stemborers) with trap plants (pull) whilst driving them away from the main crop using a repellent intercrop (push). Chemicals released by the intercrop roots induce abortive germination of the parasitic striga weed, providing very effective control of this noxious weed. The companion plants provide high value animal fodder, facilitating milk production and diversifying farmers’ income sources. Furthermore, soil fertility is improved and soil degradation prevented. The technology is ecologically and economically sustainable as it is based on locally available plants, not expensive external inputs, and fits well with traditional mixed cropping systems in Africa. To date it has been adopted by over 40,000 smallholder farmers in East Africa where maize yields have increased from less than 1 t/ha to over 3.5 t/ha, achieved with minimal inputs.

The expected results of the overall project are:

1. Awareness, interest and ownership created among key stakeholders will establish suitable conditions for dissemination of the technology to smallholders in the target areas and beyond. Additionally, there will be improved exchange of information, experience and knowledge through networks and stakeholder platforms;

2. Efficient input production and distribution systems of the selected drought-tolerant trap- and intercrop plants established for scaling up the push-pull technology in target areas and beyond;

3. Push-pull technology adapted to drier areas of Kenya, Ethiopia and Tanzania, and adopted by a total of 50,000 households, both female and male headed, in the target countries thereby providing a critical mass of farmers for spontaneous autonomous diffusion within and beyond the target areas resulting in:

i. Significant improvements in soil fertility, land degradation reversed, abandoned land reclaimed, and agroecosystem integrity enhanced in the target areas;

ii. Significant increases in grain yields, and food sufficiency/security achieved through control of the major abiotic and biotic constrains;

iii. Significant improvements in milk and dairy production through provision of year-round quality fodder and improved knowledge on animal husbandry;

iv. Improved livelihoods resulting in better economic and nutritional wellbeing as well as poverty alleviation in the target areas, with the overall contribution towards attainment of MDGs;

4. Human and technical capacities of stakeholders, including national extension systems built for effective and sustainable technology use, thereby enhancing the link between agricultural research and extension programmes. This will also create a pool of experts in the area of conservation agriculture with improved research capacity. It will also create an established backstopping expertise in the region thereby responding to beneficiaries’ needs;

5. Strong linkages and collaborations among stakeholders formed and strengthened for subsequent technology refinement, deployment, resource mobilization, and to influence policies meant to improve food security of smallholder female and male farmers. Moreover, the research linkage existing between icipe and Rothamsted Research will be strengthened, while additional linkages between Rothamsted Research and the other participating institutions established;

6. Socio-economic impact of the push-pull technology and its impact on gender assessed;

7. Publications: At least three publications on socio-economic impacts of push-pull technology and impact on gender in the target areas; At least three publications on the chemical ecology of the new companion plants as affected by climate change and effects on soil health; Popular articles and other aspects of media engaging with the public and farming communities will be contributed throughout and after the proposed work;

8. Multiplier effects of the technology in the region achieved: The technology adopted by a critical mass of smallholder farmers in the region thus allowing its autonomous diffusion beyond the target areas; farmers and the communities in the region are expected to benefit as above as push-pull is a platform technology.
II. Objective of the Consultancy

The consultancy is intended to carry out two related studies:

The consultancy is intended to carry out an ex-ante baseline, financial, social and economic impact assessments of subsistence farmers in target areas for future determination of the impacts of ADOPT Project, and an in-depth gender analysis
III. Scope of Work

1. Quantification of baseline information, in terms of biotic (e.g. parasitic striga weeds, cereal stemborers) and abiotic (land degradation, poor soil fertility, water stress, etc) farming constraints; the performance of cereal crop-livestock farming systems, social, economic and environmental criteria; as well as driving forces, strength and opportunities in the target areas of Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania. The baseline information will also be quantified with respect to the target stakeholders, with the effects disaggregated by gender, their needs, including but not limited to:

a. Data and maps of extent and intensity of the farm constraints in the target areas, which will facilitate the geographical targeting of the implementation strategies for the ADOPT program.

The deliverables will include:

i. Compilation of available secondary data on (i) the spatial distribution and intensity of striga infestation, stemborer infestation and other constraints (ii) areas of cereal cropland and production levels, (iii) livestock and dairy production levels, and (iv) related agro-climatic information in the target areas, including soil health; assessment of gaps in data; collection of samples of primary data.

ii. Data standardization and spatial mapping

b. Quantification of cereal and livestock production, and negative economic impacts of the farming constraints and climate change, providing evidence of how much of the production potential is currently lost to striga weeds, stemborers, and other biotic constraints, abiotic constraints, and effects of climate change, separated by gender. The findings are expected to show that reducing pre-harvest losses caused by these constraints by adapting and implementing Push-pull technology has significant potential impacts on food security, incomes, social protection (including women empowerment) and poverty-reduction will include:

i. Quantified cereal yields (t/ha), livestock production losses, and market prices for cereal crops and livestock products at lowest administrative units (Woreda for Ethiopia, sub-location for Kenya, and ward for Tanzania).

ii. Quantified cereal yield (t/ha) and livestock production losses aggregated and extrapolated across divisions, districts and country.

iii. Loss of agricultural land for cereal production due to striga weeds and stemborer infestation computed and documented.

iv. The value of affected cereal crops (maize, sorghum and millet) and livestock in different AEZ calculated and mapped.

v. Population and food consumption deficits analyzed at the lowest administrative units indicating the number of households affected.

vi. Proportional effects of the factors above on gender documented and mapped

2. Critical evaluation of the climate-adapted Push-pull solution

a. A feasibility assessment of the potential benefits of the adapted Push-pull technology (ADOPT) and practices in different agro-ecological zones in the target areas, also analysed with respect to gender. Experience has shown that Push-pull technology in its existing form has potential to make significant improvements in livelihoods of the smallholder farmers in addition to environmental sustainability.. What this assessment will do is to model and extrapolate the performance of crop-livestock production and estimate what would happen when the technology is adapted for drier and hotter conditions, at larger scale.

The deliverables will include:

i. An inventory of current farming practices generated, screened and described

ii. Assessment of marginal rates of return or benefit/cost ratio and acceptable levels of environmental impact in relevant AEZ with respect to climate change, of the Push-pull technology

iii. An estimation of overall benefit to cost ratios, by extrapolation from current baselines.

iv. An analysis of the potential impact of the technology on gender-related issues such as labor and incomes

b. An appraisal of the farm-level investment required under the adapted Push-pull for the purpose of estimating benefit to cost ratios. The Consultant will synthesize existing data to estimate the true cost of deploying the adapted Push-pull technology. This synthesis will also look at how different population groups and actors (where possible disaggregated by gender) will contribute and benefit. This will include:

i. Main beneficiaries and actors in Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania identified

ii. Assessment of farm-level investments required under the adapted Push-pull, and the main market dynamics for inputs, services and their costs, quality control requirements; seed distribution systems; product information; and financing needs.

iii. Gaps in technology uptake in the existing extension delivery mechanisms identified and documented.

iv. Human and technical capacities of stakeholders, including national extension systems built for effective and sustainable technology use.

v. Enabling/dis-enabling policies to drive uptake of the adapted Push-pull technology identified and remedial approaches proposed

vi. Knowledge and information communication products for dissemination categorized and documented for advocacy.

3. Analysis of the expected outcomes and impacts (social, economic and environmental), including gender analysis

a. Projected uptake and impact of the adapted Push-pull technology appraised, with respect to gender. There are many actors who need to take actions of different types to ensure the technology and practices are fully deployed. Therefore, it is important that right from the start there is a clear understanding of what it will take to facilitate these actors to play their roles. These will be achieved through:

i. The number of cereal-livestock producers and those affected by the identified constraints and climate change in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania concurrently determined from secondary sources of information.

ii. Factors conditioning adoption of the adapted Push-pull technology identified, assessed and articulated.

iii. Probability estimates of uptake of the adapted Push-pull technology in different AEZs estimated and documented.

iv. Impact of the adapted Push-pull technology on gender, household incomes and food security assessed and documented.

v. Risks associated with the uptake of the adapted Push-pull technology computed.

b. A credible forecast of the impact that would be achieved after the intervention has been successfully executed. On the basis of the information collected and analyzed the ultimate deliverable is identification and appraisal of quantified impact, taking in consideration gender, and the baseline situation with respect to:

i. The ADOPT Project objectives and vision of success;

ii. Regional and country level supply of cereals, livestock and dairy products;

iii. Incomes of farmers and other agro-entrepreneurs involved in the cereals’ and livestock value chains;

iv. Potential conflicts between different impacts

v. Stakeholders who are (positively or negatively) affected by the ADOPT Project. The assessment should pay attention to the verifiability of the expected impacts against credible counterfactuals.

vi. The ex-ante assessment should also suggest necessary and sufficient data collection for ex-post impact assessment.

IV Requirements

* Minimum MSc degree or its equivalent in the field of agricultural economics, development studies or related social sciences
* Minimum of 5 years proven experience in agricultural economic research, majoring in ex-ante impact assessments, gender analysis and publication, preferably in the field of agriculture
* Demonstrated knowledge of social science data analysis procedures
* Minimum of three publications as first author in a refereed journal
* Training and working experience in smallholder African agriculture, including capacity development and preparation of high quality donor reports, would be desirable
* Willing to travel to the different ADOPT project sites in Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania.
* Ability to work in multi-disciplinary teams is highly desirable.

Applications will be accepted up to 15 May 2011. Only applications of shortlisted candidates will be acknowledged. Please send your application, together with an indication of your availability, a detailed curriculum vitae, university certificates and grades (BSc, MSc or PhD), expected consultancy fee, and names/addresses of three referees (including telephone, e-mail and fax numbers) to:

hr@icipe.orgThis e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it or

The Human Resources Manager
icipe - African Insect Science for Food and Health
P.O. Box 30772-00100
Nairobi
Kenya

With copy to:

Prof. Zeyaur R. Khan ( zkhan@icipe.orgThis e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it )
Principal Scientist and Programme Leader

icipe is an Equal Opportunity Employer

Posted on: 20 April 2011