MACRO-ECONOMIC-DYNAMIC MODELLING CONSULTANT FOR SEYCHELLES NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY FORMULATION

The First National Development Strategy of Seychelles (NDSS) aimed at creating social infrastructure emphasizing social development and wealth distribution, was developed during the period 1977-1981. Since then, a total of four annual rolling plans were published between 1977 and 1982 and the last one was for the period 1982-1986. The two watershed plans were the NDP 1984-89 and NDP 1990-94. Another historical point in the national process was conducted in 1994 with the new three-year planning mechanism, the Public Sector Investment Programme (PSIP), formulated to complement the broad economic agenda outlined in the 1994 Budget Address. The PSIP for the period 1995-1997 was described as “an indicative and rolling programme”. The PSIP had then a rather modest goal: to provide planning with a long term perspective to complement the annual budget. In total, two annual rolling PSIPs were implemented, one over the period 1996-1998 and the other 1997-1999. During the absence of the NDPs (period 1994-1996) and the PSIPs (period 2000-2005), the annual budget was the government’s main instrument for fostering development and upholding the welfare system. In late 2002 the Macro Economic Reform Program (MERP) was set up and implemented on the 1st of July 2003. The review focused on all aspects of the economy in an effort to develop a sustainable economic programme designed to move from years of sizable annual deficits to achieve a budget surplus. The main elements of the reform consisted of a broadening of the Goods and Services Taxes Act and a much more stringent and controlled programme of government expenditure. There was also a staggered reduction plan for trade tax on imported goods. MERP has helped to achieve budget surpluses in each year since its implementation. Consequently, in 2005 the Department of Economic Planning was mandated to prepare a 5-year National Development Plan. However, in 2006, with the Seychelles successfully issuing bonds which raised US $200 million on the international financial market, the project was shelved and the “Strategy 2017” was conceptualized by 2007. The launching of a medium term strategy in 2007 – “The Seychelles Strategy 2017”, only spelled out the Government’s visions for twenty-three sectors, including health and education, utilities and support services, environment, agriculture, financial markets but did not provide concrete and comprehensive programmes, legal framework, cost estimates nor did it articulate the action plans/strategies to be implemented in order to meet the targets of the overall Strategy. Subsequently, cognizant that the past reforms efforts have been insufficient to address imbalances and vulnerabilities, the authorities began implementing a package of major macroeconomic and structural reforms. In November 2008, Seychelles embarked on a wide-ranging Macroeconomic Reform Programme under a Stand-by Arrangement with the IMF. The primary objectives of the reform were to fundamentally address economical imbalances, and in particular, the spiraling of the national and international debt management (and liberalize the country’s exchange regime to enable the floating of the rupee; have significant and sustained fiscal tightening; and reform the monetary policies to promote liquidity management based on indirect instruments). The World Bank, ADB and EU all supported the reform by providing financial assistance for the budget support operations. With the good track records of the reform, the Government negotiated an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) with the IMF, which is essentially an extension of the Stand-by Arrangement and which will hence provide funds to help off-set Seychelles’ debts. To consolidate this, the Government produced a Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP) for 2009-2012, which aims at: Addressing public debt re-structuring with a view to re-establishing external sustainability Accompanying a comprehensive medium-term structural reform strategy aimed at securing macroeconomic stability and raising growth performance; And guiding Seychelles macroeconomic policies over the next three years. The EFF is expected to reassure the public, international investors, international partners and creditors that Seychelles is committed and serious about implementing its Reform.

Duties and Responsibilities

With the main objective of a five-year Medium Term National Development Strategy being to provide a comprehensive, coherent and holistic approach, to Sustainable Development and Planning in the Seychelles a systemic approach is needed to evaluate the performance of key sectors and analyse the potential effectiveness –within and across sectors- of suggested interventions. Specifically, an analysis is needed to fill the gaps of conventional sustainable development planning, where the three pillars of development (the social, economic and environmental one) have been normally treated in isolation. This TOR includes: Review of existing relevant documents for sectoral and national planning, including the National Sustainable Development Strategy. Review of the draft strategy document and analysis of the sectors and policies included in the study. The identification of key causal relations within and across the key sectors analysed. The creation of system maps (approximately 10, including national and sectoral ones), based on the causal relations mentioned above, that would prefer they functioning mechanisms of the sectors analysed. A systemic qualitative analysis (using the system maps) of the likely sectoral and cross-sectoral impact (positive and negative, synergies and side effects), within and across sectors. Liaison of the expert with the national team in charge of drafting the strategy, to make sure that the development of causal maps is entirely based on –and consistent with- the content of the strategy. Liaison of the expert with the Economist working to support the creation of the strategy, to ensure that economic aspects are correctly captured in the system maps and analysis. The deliverables include: System maps (sectoral and system-wide) Preparation of supporting text to be integrated in the strategy report Meetings with project team Basic Sensitisation programme for the project team Presentation of results in a meeting with stakeholders

Competencies

Must possess strong Analytical, supervisory and good writing skills Must be able to incorporate mirco and macro-economic concepts where applicable Must also possess deeper understanding of contemporary trade issues with particular reference to WTO and the Regional Integration process The International Macro-economic consultant must possess as a minimum pre-requisite: Must have experience in Dynamic modelling encompassing socio-economic and environment in development strategies

Required Skills and Experience

The International Macro-economic consultant must possess as a minimum pre-requisite: Education: A Masters degree in Development Economics Experience: 15 years in related field of Development Economics, fiscal and or trade policies Must be a senior expert in SIDS environment Well versed in formulating and implementing National Strategies Must have relevant experience either in research, consultancies or advisory capacities to Governmental institutions or bodies

MACRO-ECONOMIC-DYNAMIC MODELLING CONSULTANT FOR SEYCHELLES NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY FORMULATION